TIME: Almanac 1993/TIME Almanac 1993.iso/time/051589/05158900.032

Text File | 1992-09-23 | 5.6 KB | 106 lines

                D                                                          WORLD, Page 42

CAMBODIA

Better Times for a Ravaged Land


A royal return and rising confidence give Hun Sen a lift

By William Stewart/PHNOM PENH


    It is the end of the dry season, and a breathlessness lies upon
the land. The empty, harvested rice fields shimmer in the heat,
while the broken shells of former schools and hospitals dot the
countryside. The supply of electricity is erratic, and most of the
main roads out of Phnom Penh peter out within an hour's drive from
the capital.

    Cambodia is still in appalling physical shape ten years after
the Khmer Rouge were driven from power by an invading army from
Vietnam. The country's economy operates at only 60% of its prewar
level, its port facilities at just one-third. There is a 50,000-ton
rice shortage in a country that was once a major exporter. Over
everything hangs the threat of renewed civil war -- and the
possibility of a return by the Khmer Rouge, whose murderous leaders
have taken their place in the nation's demonology.

    But beneath the ravaged surface of the land, there is renewed
vitality in this long-suffering country, a newfound sense of
confidence. Surprisingly, the government of Hun Sen, installed by
the Vietnamese, has begun to seek changes that could win it
something no ruler has had for two decades: popular support. Owing
largely to increasingly liberal economic policies, the Prime
Minister, 38, is gaining credibility both abroad and at home for
departing from Communist orthodoxy.

    The key to Hun Sen's efforts to retain power when the last
Vietnamese soldiers depart by Sept. 30 is the cooperation of
Cambodia's former head of state, the wily and mercurial Prince
Norodom Sihanouk, 67, who remains a powerful psychological symbol
of better times. Last week, after the leaders held two days of
talks in the Indonesian capital of Jakarta, Sihanouk indicated for
the first time that he was prepared to return home as head of state
without his partner in opposition, the Khmer Rouge. But the former
monarch laid on a host of ifs and buts to his offer that leave his
return in doubt.

    Still, it was a guileful change of tone for Sihanouk, who had
spurned previous invitations from the "illegitimate" Hun Sen
regime. Only recently Sihanouk had called the Prime Minister "the
valet of Vietnamese imperialism." Now the prince boasted, "I am the
father of all Cambodians, so Hun Sen is my child."

    If Hun Sen will meet the demands for a more liberal, multiparty
government, said Sihanouk, "I will accept his government, his
administration," and return home in October or November. Hun Sen
responded symbolically by arriving in Jakarta with a new flag --
Sihanouk's red and blue, instead of Communist red -- a new anthem,
and constitutional amendments to liberalize the economy, make
Buddhism the state religion and bar capital punishment. The Prime
Minister also announced that his country's name will henceforth
revert from the People's Republic of Kampuchea to the old
Sihanouk-era State of Cambodia.

    Hun Sen must craft a political settlement that will satisfy
not only the warring Cambodian factions but also their foreign
sponsors: the Soviet Union and Vietnam on one side, China and the
U.S. on the other. While Hun Sen made a number of gestures toward
the Prince, he still refused to allow the Khmer Rouge into the new
government before elections; Sihanouk insisted it must be tried.
Officially, the U.S. backs a pre-election four-party coalition that
would include the Khmer Rouge, though no one wants to see them back
in control.

    But it is unlikely that China, which has supplied the Khmer
Rouge for some 20 years as a check on the aggressive Vietnamese,
will accept any government with Hun Sen at its center, and it may
be unwilling to halt the flow of arms if the Khmer Rouge are
completely excluded. Just how China's interests can be accommodated
will be a major topic when Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev meets
Deng Xiaoping in Beijing next week.

    The Khmer Rouge remain a potent opposition force, with as many
as 35,000 armed guerrillas and support from perhaps 10% of the
populace. Foreign diplomats in Phnom Penh, however, believe the
strength and ability of the Khmer Rouge may be overestimated.

    In contrast, Hun Sen's confidence has been growing. For the
past 18 months, with the Soviet Union's encouragement, Cambodia has
been tiptoeing toward a free-market economy. Almost every day ships
arrive from Thailand and Singapore carrying a variety of consumer
goods. Though technically illegal, imported canned food can be
found throughout the capital of Phnom Penh, which, ironically, is
more prosperous than Hanoi, the Vietnamese capital. The streets of
Phnom Penh buzz with reconditioned motorbikes. At the thriving
central market, private stalls purvey clothes and souvenirs, and
dozens of private restaurants lure customers to dine on river
prawn. To attract urban support, the government gave residential
rights to squatters who had moved into city dwellings abandoned by
owners who had either fled abroad or been killed by the Khmer
Rouge. In the countryside, the government allows farmers to buy up
to 25 acres of land and pass them on to their children.

    Cambodians are nervous about what may happen when the
Vietnamese withdraw, but their military leaders are optimistic. "We
can master the situation," insists Minister of Defense General Tea
Banh, 45. Although his hold on the country is fragile, Hun Sen is
acting more and more like a man in command.